Deviations From the Mean

The turmoil in Burma gives President Bush the perfect opportunity to put his “democracy and freedom” rhetoric into positive action. But will he act in a forceful effective way? One can’t count on it, especially if you are a long suffering Burmese dissident.

The ruling military junta in Burma is one of the most secretive, repressive, brutal, and plain weird regimes in the world. They are so strange that they almost make North Korea’s “great leader”, Kim Jong Il, look normal. Over the protests of the international community the junta has ruled Burma for the past 19 years.

Under their corrupt and self serving rule the Burmese people have become some of the poorest people in the world even though Burma is a potentially rich country with oil, natural gas, mineral, and timber resources that should be developed in a way to provide a good life for the Burmese people. Instead the military junta keeps almost all income for itself.

In his speech before the UN this week President Bush did mention Burma and said the the US would increase sanctions. We should know what that means by now, right? The common folks will suffer all the more while the government and black market operators will prosper all the more.

While I am not generally in favor of one nation imposing regime change upon another Burma is a special situation if ever there was one. A cutthroat band of military generals denied the National League for Democracy, the political party headed by Nobel Peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, the elections they won 19 years ago and has held Aung San Suu Kyi under house arrest since that time. If ever a junta deserved to be taken out by the use of US power it is the members of the Burma junta and their supporters.

Unfortunately, military action is not really an option. The main reason is that China considers Burma a client state and has supported the Burma junta with military arms sales and with the expansion of trade. China is keen on having access to Burma’s natural resource riches, especially its oil and natural gas fields.

The US can not directly confront China over Burma without taking on a serious risk of at least economic retaliation from China. As our largest creditor China has more influence and power with US policies then our Congressmen and President Bush care to openly speak about.

So what can President Bush do to match firm action with stiff rhetoric? Here are a couple of suggestions. We and the Europeans must let China know how strongly we feel about violence being used against the Buddhist monks and students who are at the forefront of the anti government demonstrations. We should let China know that we expect them to act to reign in the junta and more toward free elections within Burma.

China has the power in the region to make a difference in Burma if they are so inclined. We should insure that China sees that removing the junta in Burma would greatly enhance China’s image in the world and would be in China’s self interest. Let China get the credit and glory, it’s their neighborhood.

If China doesn’t swiftly respond in a favorable way we can suggest that we may sit out the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. The serious threat of an Olympic boycott by the US and European powers would get China’s attention fast.

We should also use the money following tactics that worked with North Korea. If we can freeze the Burmese general’s cash held in the international banking system their altitude would change as they ran out of French cognac and the ability to purchase more arms.

Please President Bush. Don’t just talk about sanctions. With the situation in Burma you have the opportunity to repair at least a bit of your legacy.

Everyone knows that sanctions will have only limited effect except to hurt the very people you say you want to help. Get tough in a smart way. For sure freeze the general’s cash. That will work. That’s what the devils live for.

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